Paul Ehrlich

By 2000 the UK will be a group of impoverished islands of about 70 million hungry people, with an even chance that England will no longer exist.

“By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people … If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”

Said on

1 September 1971 · Speech at the British Institute for Biology, September 1971 (day unknown; first of month used), as quoted by Matt Ridley.

Source

Punctured pessimists · Matt Ridley (blog)

Should come true

2000

How sure they sounded

will be; I would take even money (50%) on England not existing

Categories

PoliticsEconomy

Importance

3 of 5 · Predicts the collapse of a major country.

Outcome

Inaccurate

England still existed in 2000 and the UK was a wealthy country of about 59 million people, not 70 million hungry people on impoverished islands. Ehrlich himself later acknowledged England did exist in 2000.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom
• https://reason.com/2015/06/01/doomster-paul-ehrlich-unrepentant-my-lan/