Paul Krugman

US real GDP growth will not be much above 2 percent a year over the next few years (1997-2000).

“So standard economic analysis suggests that we cannot look forward to growth at a rate of much more than 2 percent over the next few years.”

Said on

1 July 1997 · Harvard Business Review essay "How Fast Can the U.S. Economy Grow?" (July-August 1997), hosted on Krugman's MIT page

Source

HOW FAST CAN THE U.S. ECONOMY GROW? · Paul Krugman (MIT web page; Harvard Business Review)

Should come true

2000

How sure they sounded

standard economic analysis suggests

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · A forecast of the US growth rate during the late-1990s "new economy" debate.

Outcome

Inaccurate

US real GDP grew about 4.4 percent in 1997, 4.5 percent in 1998, 4.8 percent in 1999 and 4.1 percent in 2000 (BEA), roughly double the "not much more than 2 percent" he forecast, as productivity growth accelerated.

Evidence:

• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA