Unresolvable ●●●●●
US broad-based inflation will turn negative (deflation) during 2023.
“We would not be surprised to see broad-based inflation turn negative in 2023”Economy
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will reach gold's market value, about $500,000 per coin, by the end of 2029.
“if Bitcoin goes to the value of gold, it’s going to $500,000 a coin, and I think that happens this decade,”Crypto
Partly right ●●●●●
US inflation readings will come in well below expectations (major downside surprises) between September 2022 and March 2023.
“So we think we're going to see some major downside surprises in inflation during the next three to six months.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The June 2022 low was the bottom of the 2022 bear market, and the Fed would pivot away from tightening within about two months (by end of September 2022).
“This is the August 1982 moment, bottom is in but Fed is two months away from a pivot”MarketsBanking
Right, but late ●●●●●
Ethereum's Merge to proof of stake will happen in August 2022.
“If there are no problems, then the merge will happen in August”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500's 2022 low was already set by the end of Q1 2022 (no lower close later in 2022).
“And with 1Q2022 behind us, we now assign a > 88% probability that the bottom for 2022 is in.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will end 2022 above its March 9, 2022 close of about 4,278.
“Do I think stocks will end higher from here on an absolute basis? Yes.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will replace the US dollar.
“Yes, Bitcoin will”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will be flat or down in the first half of 2022.
“I think it's easily flat or down in the first half.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
In 2022, price deflation rather than inflation will be the bigger surprise to markets.
“my conviction is growing that the bigger surprise to the markets will be price deflation – both cyclical and secular”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
ARK's innovation strategies (e.g. ARKK) will triple to quintuple in value (30-40% compound annual return) between December 2021 and December 2026.
“if our research is correct – and I believe that our research on innovation is the best in the financial world – then our strategies will triple to quintuple in value over the next five years”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin ("digital gold") will overtake gold as the leading store-of-value asset (exceed gold's market value) by the end of 2029.
“It's pretty clear, digital gold is going to replace gold this decade.”CryptoMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US goods prices will start falling (inflation will unwind) soon after the 2021 holiday season, in early 2022.
“As a result, once the holiday season passes and companies face excess supplies, prices should unwind.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Hyperinflation is imminent and will soon hit the United States and then the rest of the world.
“Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It’s happening.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Oil prices will soon follow lumber and copper lower (falling from mid-2021 levels by the end of 2021).
“We believe oil prices will not be far behind, despite the significant cutbacks in energy-related capital spending”EnergyEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
Prediction markets will become an increasingly important application on Ethereum in the years after 2021.
“I expect prediction markets to become an increasingly important Ethereum application in the years to come.”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Rollups (rather than base-layer execution sharding) will become Ethereum's main scaling strategy in the near and mid term.
“the Ethereum ecosystem is likely to be all-in on rollups (plus some plasma and channels) as a scaling strategy for the near and mid-term future.”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Ethereum 2.0 Phase 0 (the proof-of-stake beacon chain) will go live by the end of 2020.
“This will release the proof-of-stake network, which will come online this year.”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Tesla stock will reach $7,000 per share (pre-split; about $467 after the 2020 and 2022 splits) by February 2025.
“Our confidence level that this stock is heading for $7,000 over the next five years is very high”MarketsTechnology
Pending ●●●●●
The crypto market as a whole will not see another 1,000-fold price increase (to roughly $200 trillion) in the decade after September 2018.
“There isn't an opportunity for yet another 1,000-times growth in anything in the space anymore.”CryptoMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will become the world's and the internet's single currency within about ten years (by 2028).
“The world ultimately will have a single currency, the internet will have a single currency. I personally believe that it will be bitcoin”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Tesla stock will reach $4,000 per share (pre-2020-split price; $800 after the 2020 5-for-1 split, about $267 after the 2022 3-for-1 split).
“If we're right, this stock in our models is going to $4,000”MarketsTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will soon be effectively shut down or marginalized, suffering the same fate as online gambling.
“#Bitcoin days are numbered. It seems like just a matter of time before it suffers the same fate as online gambling.”Crypto