US inflation readings will come in well below expectations (major downside surprises) between September 2022 and March 2023.
Partly right ●●●●●
“So we think we're going to see some major downside surprises in inflation during the next three to six months.”
- Said on
- 9 September 2022 · Interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business "Mornings with Maria"; she added she would not be surprised to see PCE inflation "well down into the threes" in that period.
- Source
- Ark Invest's Cathie Wood predicts inflation will see 'major downside surprises' in coming months · Fox Business
- Should come true
- Mar 2023
- How sure they sounded
- we think
- Categories
- Economy
- Importance
- 3 of 5 · A call on the path of US inflation, central to Fed policy and markets.
Outcome
Partly right
October and November 2022 CPI (7.7% and 7.1% year over year) came in below consensus, so there were real downside surprises. But they were modest, January 2023 CPI came in hotter than expected, and PCE inflation stayed above 5%, nowhere near the "threes" she suggested. A weaker version happened, so partial is the cautious score.
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_11102022.htm
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12132022.htm
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_02142023.htm
History
- 2026-10-17 00:03:05 · created by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:03:05 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:03:48 · scored by claude