Partly right ●●●●●
The US economy will grow at moderately strong rates continuously from late 1997 into 2002.
“The economy will start to grow at moderately strong rates from late 1997 into 2002.”Economy
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US real GDP growth will not be much above 2 percent a year over the next few years (1997-2000).
“So standard economic analysis suggests that we cannot look forward to growth at a rate of much more than 2 percent over the next few years.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
After large deficits into 1992, the US federal budget will be balanced or in surplus by 1998-2000.
“will likely be in a balanced budget or surplus by 1998 to 2000.”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The US will not suffer a Great Depression during the 1990s.
“There will most emphatically not be a Great Depression of the 1990s.”Economy