Pending ●●●●●
By about 2034 solar and wind will supply all of humanity's energy.
“So at that rate, in about 10 years, we'll be getting all of our energy that way, and it'll keep getting cheaper.”EnergyClimate
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
By 2029 medical research will add at least one year of remaining life expectancy for every year that passes (longevity escape velocity).
“By 2029, you'll get back a full year.”Health
Pending ●●●●●
By 2038, quantum computers will be powerful enough to break today's standard encryption codes (e.g. RSA).
“We're talking about ten, 15 years in the future when quantum computers are so powerful they can break any code.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
Humanity will detect a signal from an extraterrestrial civilization before the end of 2100.
“In this century, there is a very good chance that we will pick up a signal from another planet.”Space
Pending ●●●●●
Humans will travel to Mars around the 2030s (by end of 2039), after using the Moon as a base.
“first to the moon, using the moon as a base, and then on to Mars perhaps around the 2030s.”Space
Pending ●●●●●
Universal basic income will be in place across the developed world by the early 2030s (read as end of 2033) and worldwide by the end of the 2030s.
“In the early 2030s, we'll have universal basic income in the developed world, and worldwide by the end of the 2030s.”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
During the 2030s, nanorobots sent into the human brain will provide full-immersion virtual reality and connect the neocortex to the cloud.
“In the 2030s we are going to send nanorobots into the brain that will provide full immersion virtual reality from within the nervous system and will connect our neocortex to the cloud.”TechnologyHealth
Pending ●●●●●
By 2045 humans will merge with AI and multiply their effective intelligence a billionfold (the Singularity).
“I have set the date 2045 for the 'Singularity' which is when we will multiply our effective intelligence a billion fold by merging with the intelligence we have created.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
An AI will pass a valid Turing test, achieving human-level intelligence, by 2029.
“2029 is the consistent date I have predicted for when an AI will pass a valid Turing test and therefore achieve human levels of intelligence.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
By mid-2034, lab-grown human organs will be routinely available to order on demand for transplant.
“In 10 to 20 years, we will have a human body shop at which we will simply order organs on demand”Health
Partly right ●●●●●
Moore's Law (doubling of transistor density roughly every two years) will collapse by around 2022.
“In about 10 years or so, we will see the collapse of Moore's Law”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
Within 10 years of March 2012 (by March 2022), the costs of solar, wind, hydrogen and other renewables will fall below the cost of fossil fuels.
“The falling cost of solar, hydrogen, renewable, wind power, geothermal power and the rising cost of fossil fuels will cross within 10 years”EnergyClimate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Contact lenses giving wearers direct internet access will exist within 15 years of April 2011 (by April 2026).
“Well, as you mentioned, we’re going to have the internet in our contact lens, perhaps within 10 to 15 years.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
Humanity will become a Kardashev Type I (planetary) civilization, harnessing roughly all energy available on Earth, by 2111.
“Calculating the energy output of the planet, we can estimate that we will attain Type I status within 100 years.”Energy
Pending ●●●●●
By 2031 solar power will meet all of the world's energy needs.
“In 20 years we'll be meeting all of our energy needs with solar, based on this trend which has already been underway for 20 years.”EnergyClimate
Accurate ●●●●●
Conventional silicon computers will reach about 20 million billion operations per second (a high estimate of human-brain capacity) before 2020.
“achieving even a conservatively high estimate of the information processing capacity of the human brain … will be achieved by conventional silicon circuits prior to 2020.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 2024 scientists will have fully decoded (scanned and reverse-engineered) the human brain.
“Certainly within the next 20 to 25 years we will succeed in fully decoding the human brain just as we're now nearing completion of the decoding of the human genome.”TechnologyAIHealth
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By about 2009 bioengineering will be reversing most diseases, such as cancer, and the processes of aging.
“Over the next 10 years we will be reversing most diseases like cancer and also aging processes”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By around 2019 a $1,000 PC will perform about 20 million billion calculations per second (20 petaflops), the estimated raw capacity of the human brain.
“But 200 calculations a second times a hundred trillion-fold parallelism is about 20 million billion calculations per second, or about 20 billion mips. And we'll achieve that in a thousand dollar PC or equivalent by around 2019.”TechnologyAI
Right, but late ●●●●●
By 2009 real-time speech-translating phone calls will be in common use for many language pairs.
“Translating telephone technology (where you speak in English and your Japanese friend hears you in Japanese, and vice versa) is commonly used for many language pairs.”AITechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will expand continuously, without recession, from 1999 through 2009.
“Despite occasional corrections, the ten years leading up to 2009 have seen continuous economic expansion and prosperity”Economy
Right, but late ●●●●●
By 2009 a company based west of the Mississippi and north of the Mason-Dixon Line (Kurzweil says he meant Microsoft) will be worth more than $1 trillion in market capitalization.
“A company west of the Mississippi and north of the Mason-Dixon Line has surpassed a trillion dollars in market capitalization.”MarketsTechnology
Right, but late ●●●●●
By 2009 warfare will be dominated by unmanned intelligent aerial drones.
“Warfare is dominated by unmanned intelligent airborne devices.”GeopoliticsTechnology
Right, but late ●●●●●
By 2009 supercomputers will reach at least 20 petaflops, matching the hardware capacity of the human brain.
“Supercomputers match at least the hardware capacity of the human brain … 20 million billion calculations per second (20 petaflops).”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
By 2009 a $1,000 personal computer will perform about a trillion calculations per second (1 teraflop).
“A $1,000 personal computer can perform about a trillion calculations per second.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 2009 intelligent highways will be in use for long-distance travel, letting cars drive themselves once their guidance systems lock onto roadway sensors.
“Intelligent roads are in use, primarily for long-distance travel. Once your car's computer guidance system locks onto the control sensors on one of these highways, you can sit back and relax.”Self-drivingTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 2009 most text will be created by speaking (speech recognition) rather than typing.
“Keyboards still exist, but most textual language is created by speaking.”TechnologyAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 2019 hard disk drives and other rotating or electromechanical computer storage will have been fully replaced by electronic (solid-state) devices.
“Rotating memories and other electromechanical computing devices have been fully replaced with electronic devices.”Technology
Right, but late ●●●●●
By the early 2000s a computer driver installed in cars will drive and navigate on its own from one place to another, communicating with other cars and road sensors.
“The cybernetic chauffeur, installed in one's car, communicates with other cars and sensors on the roads. In this way it successfully drives and navigates from one point to another.”Self-drivingAI
Right, but late ●●●●●
By the early 2000s robotic exoskeletons will let paraplegic people walk and climb stairs.
“Exoskeletal robotic prosthetic aids enable paraplegic persons to walk and climb stairs.”HealthTechnology