Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will end 2022 above its March 9, 2022 close of about 4,278.
“Do I think stocks will end higher from here on an absolute basis? Yes.”Markets
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will be flat or down in the first half of 2022.
“I think it's easily flat or down in the first half.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
US consumer prices will rise about 20% cumulatively over the three to four years from May 2021 (by May 2025).
“I believe in the next three, four years cumulatively we're going to have 20% inflation”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The U.S. stock market will have a bad second quarter of 2020 (April-June), following its awful first quarter.
“Just like the first quarter, I'm betting the second quarter will be bad — maybe not as bad as it could be, though”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The Fed will raise rates once more in December 2018 and then pause, instead of the three 2019 hikes it projected.
“It's going to be one and done in December. That's what I'm saying is happening”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Dow will fall to 5,000-5,500 by October 2020.
“We have been bubbling since 2009 – I am projecting that the Dow will go down to 5,000 – 5,500 in the next two to three years”Markets
Right, but late ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 20,000 during 2016.
“I definitely think we will see Dow 20,000 in 2016”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its September 2015 meeting.
“I think after the Fed moves—and I do think they are going to move in September—and the world doesn't end”BankingEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will rise above 18,000 within six to seven weeks of November 11, 2014 (by about December 30, 2014).
“I believe the next six or seven weeks are going to take us beyond 18,000 on the Dow”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After topping near 17,000, the Dow will fall to about 5,800 within a few years of August 2014 (by end of 2017).
“the Dow is going to go to about 17,000 and then a few years from now it is going to test the bottom at about 5,800.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
Johnson & Johnson will sell or spin off its diagnostics business during 2014.
“I bet CEO Alex Gorsky will shed JNJ's slow-growing diagnostics business this year and focus on the faster growing pharma franchise”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 15,000 by the end of 2013.
“Going to the 15,000 level, which a few months ago people were very skeptical of that, we’re talking about the end of 2013. … Odds are 3-to-2-to-1 on that”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
2010-2012 will bring the worst economic and banking crisis since the early 1930s, worse than 2008.
“2010 to 2012 will bring on the greatest economic and banking crisis since the early 1930s”EconomyBanking
Partly right ●●●●●
The U.S. housing market will bottom and turn around on June 30, 2009.
“In fact, I’ll call the precise date of the housing-market turnaround. It will begin on June 30, 2009.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
U.S. stocks will not fall back to their July 15, 2008 lows (said July 30, 2008).
“The market will not revisit the panicked lows it hit on July 15”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Bear Stearns rescue in March 2008 marked the bottom of the U.S. stock market's decline, with no lower lows to follow.
“That $30 billion from the Fed will turn out to be a small price to pay for a bottom in the stock market after the beating we’ve taken over the past eight months.”MarketsBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bear Stearns was not in trouble and would not fail (said March 11, 2008).
“Bear Stearns is not in trouble. It's more likely to be taken over.”BankingMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Goldman Sachs stock will finish 2008 at $300 a share.
“Goldman Sachs makes more money than every other brokerage firm in New York combined and finishes the year at $300 a share. Not a prediction — an inevitability.”MarketsBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Google stock will reach $1,000 a share during 2008.
“Google stock reaches $1,000.”MarketsTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
U.S. stocks will rally in the last trading sessions of 2007 (after Dec 21, 2007) through year-end.
“I think we're in for a real ramp up”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US stock market will post a gain for calendar year 2008.
“I think the stock market will have another winning year in 2008.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Fed will cut the federal funds rate to about 3.5% and then begin raising it in the second half of 2008.
“I believe that the Fed will get rates down to 3.5%, before ratcheting them upward in the second half of next year.”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will avoid a recession in 2008, with real GDP growth of 1.5% to 2.5% for the year.
“Overall I expect 1.5% to 2.5% GDP growth in 2008 and I believe the economy will avoid a recession.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US will go through a deflationary, 1930s-style depression from 2010 to 2023.
“From 2010 to 2023 we will see a depressionary, deflationary downturn that will look and feel like the 30s.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 35,000 by the end of 2009.
“we are still predicting the Dow at 35,000 in late 2008 or 2009.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The dot-com tech-stock boom of early 2000 was very far from ending (said Feb 29, 2000).
“And we will keep doing so until this period is over – and it is very far from ending”MarketsTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Yardeni put a 70% probability on a Y2K-triggered worldwide recession starting in January 2000, lasting about 12 months and as severe as the 1973-74 global recession.
“Currently, I believe there is a 70 percent chance of such a worldwide recession, which could last 12 months starting in January 2000 and could be as severe as the 1973-74 global recession.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
After large deficits into 1992, the US federal budget will be balanced or in surplus by 1998-2000.
“will likely be in a balanced budget or surplus by 1998 to 2000.”EconomyPolitics