Paul Krugman

China's investment-led growth model is about to hit its limits and the Chinese economy will crash within a couple of years of 2013.

“You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is just how bad the crash will be.”

Said on

18 July 2013 · New York Times column "Hitting China's Wall" (July 2013), quoted by Nathan Sperber in Sidecar (New Left Review) via 3 Quarks Daily; "about to" read as a window of about two years

Source

Forecasting China? · 3 Quarks Daily (excerpting Sidecar, New Left Review)

Should come true

2015

How sure they sounded

about to; the only question now is just how bad

Categories

EconomyGeopolitics

Importance

4 of 5 · A crash in the world's second-largest economy would have major global consequences.

Outcome

Inaccurate

"About to" is read as a window of about two years (to end-2015). China's growth slowed gradually, from 7.8 percent in 2013 to about 7 percent in 2015 and stayed above 6 percent until COVID, with no recession; the 2015 stock market slump and growth slowdown are a much weaker version than the economic crash he described.

Evidence:

• https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CN
• https://3quarksdaily.com/?p=240247