Gordon Chang

China's economy will have poor years in 2023 and 2024, and foreign investors in China will lose money.

Partly right ●●●●●
“China is not going to have a good 2023 or a good 2024. Foreigners are going to lose money in China again.”
Said on
30 January 2023 · Gatestone Institute column "Crazy Optimism About China's Economy", rebutting bullish post-zero-COVID forecasts.
Source
Crazy Optimism About China's Economy · Gatestone Institute
Should come true
2024
How sure they sounded
is not going to; are going to
Categories
EconomyMarkets
Importance
3 of 5 · China's economic performance and returns to foreign investors matter to global markets.

Outcome

Partly right Happened 31 December 2024.

2023 was poor for investors: China and Hong Kong stocks were the world's worst performers, down over 10%. But in 2024 Chinese stocks rose about 15% (first annual gain since 2020) and official GDP growth met its roughly 5% target, so only the 2023 half clearly held.

Evidence:

History
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