Jeremy Grantham

US oil and gas reserves and output will prove unexpectedly resilient over the following decade thanks to fracking and horizontal drilling.

“Its substantial oil and gas reserves look likely to prove unexpectedly resilient, buoyed by improving skills at fracking and lateral drilling.”

Said on

25 April 2011 · GMO quarterly letter "Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever"

Source

Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever · GMO

Should come true

by 2021

How sure they sounded

look likely to

Categories

Energy

Importance

3 of 5 · US hydrocarbon output shapes US energy security and global oil markets.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 2018.

Inferred window ~10 years. The shale boom roughly doubled US crude output in the decade after 2011, making the US the world's largest oil producer and a net petroleum exporter by 2020.

Evidence:

• https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/where-our-oil-comes-from.php
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010s_oil_glut