Jeremy Grantham

Over roughly the next decade from 2011, raw material prices will keep rising and resource shortages will be common.

“we now live in a different, more constrained, world in which prices of raw materials will rise and shortages will be common.”

Said on

25 April 2011 · GMO quarterly letter "Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever"

Source

Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever · GMO

Should come true

by 2021

How sure they sounded

will rise; will be common

Categories

EconomyMarkets

Importance

4 of 5 · A permanent rise in commodity prices would reshape global growth, inflation and food security.

Outcome

Inaccurate

Inferred window ~10 years (long-run claim). Commodity prices peaked in 2011 and then fell sharply through 2015-16 (oil glut, metals slump), staying below 2011 levels for most of the decade; the 2021-22 commodity spike came after the window and later partly reversed.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010s_oil_glut
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020s_commodities_boom