Vinod Khosla

Commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol plants will be operating within three to six years (by end of 2012 at the latest).

“So, my guess is, if we're lucky, we'll have commercial-scale plants in three years. If we're very unlucky, it will be six.”

Said on

9 December 2006 · Grist interview "Silicon Valley investor Vinod Khosla chats about the promise of ethanol" (page dated Dec 9, 2006), answering how long cellulosic ethanol will take to reach commercial scale

Source

Silicon Valley investor Vinod Khosla chats about the promise of ethanol · Grist

Should come true

2012

How sure they sounded

my guess is, if we're lucky ... if we're very unlucky

Categories

EnergyClimate

Importance

3 of 5 · Commercial cellulosic ethanol was central to US biofuel policy and the Renewable Fuel Standard.

Outcome

Right, but late Happened 31 July 2013.

The first commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol plants started in 2013: INEOS Bio's Indian River plant in Florida (July 2013) and Beta Renewables' Crescentino plant in Italy (October 2013). That is after even his "very unlucky" six-year window, which ended in late 2012, so the outcome is late. Khosla-backed KiOR started cellulosic fuel production in late 2012, but it made gasoline and diesel substitutes, not ethanol.

Evidence:

• https://hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2013/07/ineos-begins-commercial-scale-cellulosic-ethanol-production-at-florida-hub/
• https://www.energy.gov/node/954141
• https://fortune.com/longform/kior-vinod-khosla-clean-tech