Vinod Khosla

By May 2026, biomass-based ethanol will replace most US gasoline use.

“Based on my forecasts, including the considerable upside afforded by technology innovations, biomass based ethanol can replace most of our gasoline needs in twenty years”

Said on

16 May 2006 · Written testimony to the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on energy security

Source

Testimony of Vinod Khosla re: Energy Security and Oil Dependence · US Senate Foreign Relations Committee

Should come true

2026

How sure they sounded

Based on my forecasts

Categories

EnergyClimate

Importance

3 of 5 · Replacing most US gasoline with ethanol would have transformed US transport fuel, farming and oil dependence.

Outcome

Inaccurate

Twenty years on, ethanol is still only about 10% by volume of US motor gasoline (the E10 blend), nowhere near "most" of gasoline needs; cellulosic ethanol output remains tiny. The window closed in May 2026 without the forecast coming true.

Evidence:

• https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/biofuels/ethanol.php