Warren Buffett

A US housing recovery will begin by about early 2012.

“A housing recovery will probably begin within a year or so. In any event, it is certain to occur at some point.”

Said on

26 February 2011 · Berkshire Hathaway 2010 shareholder letter

Source

Berkshire Hathaway 2010 Annual Letter to Shareholders · Berkshire Hathaway

Should come true

2012

How sure they sounded

probably

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · Timing of the US housing recovery after the 2008 crash

Outcome

Right, but late Happened 31 December 2012.

In his 2011 letter (Feb 2012) Buffett wrote he was "dead wrong" about a recovery beginning within a year. The recovery then began during 2012: housing starts rose about 28% and national prices bottomed in early 2012 and rose through the year, so it happened just after the window.

Evidence:

• https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST