Warren Buffett

US residential housing problems will largely be over by about early 2011.

“within a year or so residential housing problems should largely be behind us, the exceptions being only high-value houses and those in certain localities where overbuilding was particularly egregious.”

Said on

26 February 2010 · Berkshire Hathaway 2009 shareholder letter

Source

Berkshire Hathaway 2009 Annual Letter to Shareholders · Berkshire Hathaway

Should come true

2011

How sure they sounded

should

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · Timing of the US housing recovery after the 2008 crash

Outcome

Inaccurate

By early 2011 housing problems were not behind the US: starts stayed near record lows (~600,000 a year) and prices kept falling into early 2012. Buffett's own 2011 letter says his housing-recovery timing was "dead wrong."

Evidence:

• https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST