Janet Yellen

The soft US inflation readings of 2017 will not persist, and inflation will move higher in 2018.

“My best guess is that these soft readings will not persist, and with the ongoing strengthening of labor markets, I expect inflation to move higher next year.”

Said on

15 October 2017 · Speech as Fed Chair on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the Group of Thirty International Banking Seminar, Washington

Source

Speech by Chair Yellen on the U.S. economy and monetary policy · Federal Reserve Board

Should come true

2018

How sure they sounded

My best guess; I expect

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · US inflation outlook mattered to the economy and to markets; said by the sitting Fed Chair.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 2018.

Core PCE inflation, the Fed's main gauge, rose from about 1.5-1.6% in late 2017 to about 1.9-2.0% during 2018, briefly reaching 2%. Inflation did move higher in 2018 as she expected.

Evidence:

• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE