Joe Biden

Vladimir Putin will not use a tactical nuclear weapon in the war in Ukraine.

“Well, I don't think he will. But I think it's irresponsible of him to talk about it”

Said on

11 October 2022 · CNN interview with Jake Tapper, answering "How realistic is it, do you think that Putin would use a tactical nuclear weapon?" No window stated; inferred as about 2 years.

Source

Interview with Jake Tapper of CNN · The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara)

Should come true

by 2024

How sure they sounded

I don't think

Categories

Geopolitics

Importance

5 of 5 · First wartime nuclear use since 1945 could escalate toward a wider nuclear conflict.

Outcome

Accurate

The inferred window ran about 2 years, to October 2024. Russia made repeated nuclear threats and changed its doctrine but did not use a tactical or any other nuclear weapon in Ukraine, either in that window or through October 2026.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_threats_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine