Jeremy Grantham

Global stimulus will revive the economies of large countries including the US and China by late 2009 or early 2010.

“The current stimulus is so extensive globally that surely it will kick up the economies of at least some of the larger countries, including the US and China, by late this year or early next year. (This seems about 80 percent probable to me, anyway.)”

Said on

6 May 2009 · GMO quarterly letter (Q1 2009), quoted by the Christian Science Monitor

Source

Which perma-bear's now bullish? (Hint: Grantham.) · Christian Science Monitor

Should come true

Q1 2010

How sure they sounded

surely it will; about 80 percent probable

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · Timing of recovery from the Great Recession in the two largest economies.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 30 June 2009.

NBER dates the end of the US recession to June 2009, with growth resuming in H2 2009; China's stimulus-driven growth rebounded strongly in 2009-10.

Evidence:

• https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating