Barack Obama

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will soon lose power (inferred window: about two years, to early 2014).

“it is our estimation that (Assad’s) days are numbered. It’s a matter not of if but when.”

Said on

2 March 2012 · Interview with Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic, published March 2, 2012 (quoted by AFP)

Source

Assad’s ‘days are numbered’ says Obama · Asharq Al-Awsat (AFP)

Should come true

by 2014

How sure they sounded

our estimation; not of if but when

Categories

Geopolitics

Importance

3 of 5 · The fate of Assad's regime shaped the Syrian civil war, refugee flows and regional politics.

Outcome

Right, but late Happened 8 December 2024.

"Days are numbered" implies a near-term fall; inferred window about two years (to early 2014). Assad survived with Russian and Iranian backing and only fell on 8 December 2024 when rebels took Damascus, so the event happened long after the window.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Assad_regime