Barack Obama

The 2007 US troop surge in Iraq will not reduce sectarian violence and will instead make it worse.

“I am not persuaded that 20,000 additional troops in Iraq is going to solve the sectarian violence there. In fact, I think it will do the reverse.”

Said on

10 January 2007 · Interview with Keith Olbermann on MSNBC's Countdown, the night President Bush announced the surge (quoted by PolitiFact, which splits the two consecutive sentences with an attribution). No window stated; inferred to end of 2008.

Source

Obama tried to defund troops? Not exactly · PolitiFact

Should come true

2008

How sure they sounded

I think it will

Categories

Geopolitics

Importance

3 of 5 · Judgement on a major US war strategy affecting Iraq's security.

Outcome

Inaccurate

Sectarian and overall violence in Iraq fell sharply during 2007-2008 after the surge (alongside the Sunni Awakening and Sadr ceasefire), the opposite of Obama's forecast that it would make things worse. Political reconciliation lagged, but the violence prediction did not hold within the inferred window (end of 2008).

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War_troop_surge_of_2007
• https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2008/aug/12/john-mccain/obama-tried-to-defund-troops-not-exactly/