James Hansen

Global mean temperature in 2024 will reach at least +1.4-1.5°C above the 1880-1920 average.

“global temperature in 2024 is likely to reach +1.4-1.5°C”

Said on

12 January 2023 · Hansen, Sato and Ruedy communication "Global Temperature in 2022", 12 January 2023; baseline is 1880-1920 (GISS analysis)

Source

Global Temperature in 2022 · Columbia University (James Hansen mailings)

Should come true

2024

How sure they sounded

is likely to

Categories

Climate

Importance

3 of 5 · Tests the claim that warming is accelerating, relevant to the Paris 1.5°C limit.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 2024.

NASA put 2024 at a record 1.28°C above 1951-1980 (about 1.47°C above 1850-1900); on Hansen's 1880-1920 baseline that is about +1.56°C, so the predicted +1.4-1.5°C level was reached and slightly exceeded.

Evidence:

• https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/temperatures-rising-nasa-confirms-2024-warmest-year-on-record
• https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/14743